Market Guy - prediction market research that reads the resolution fine print for you

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I trade prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. The trades that hurt weren't the ones where I read the world wrong. They were the ones where I read the resolution criteria wrong. A market asks "will X happen by date Y" and it looks obvious. Then it turns out resolution depends on a specific body publishing a specific notice, not on the thing actually happening. You were right about reality and still lost. So I built Market Guy: https://www.market-guy.com What it does: Pulls live prices, volume and orderbook data from Polymarket and Kalshi in one screener Runs a research p

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AI 分析

痛点：预测市场交易者因误读结算细则而亏损，即使对现实事件的判断正确也可能输钱。

目标用户：Polymarket、Kalshi 等预测市场交易者，尤其是关注结算条款、跨平台价差和事件研究的人。

证据：The trades that hurt weren't the ones where I read the world wrong. They were the ones where I read the resolution criteria wrong. / Paid plans start at $19/mo for the research credits, since each research pass is a real API bill.

变现：免费 screener 和 glossary 获客，按研究积分提供 $19/月订阅；后续可加更高档套餐、API 调用、团队版或按次付费。

MVP：2周内抓取 Polymarket/Kalshi 市场标题、价格、结算文本，用 LLM 标注模糊/异常结算语言并附来源链接，做跨平台同一问题对比，输出免费 screener 和付费研究积分。

竞品：Polymarket 原生界面、Kalshi 原生界面、Polymarket Analytics、Metaculus、Manifold

摘要：创始人因误读 Polymarket/Kalshi 结算细则而亏损，做了 Market Guy：聚合行情、AI 研究并标记模糊结算条款，免费 screener + $19/月订阅。产品已上线，需求来自真实交易痛点，但帖子里没有用户付费或收入验证。独立开发者可聚焦结算文本解析与跨平台对比，做一个垂直小工具。